![]() ![]() In 2019, away teams even had a positive scoring margin of 0.14, but home teams won 52.1% of the time.ĭuring the COVID season that preceded this one, where most games occurred without fans and almost every game without full stadium capacity, the power of home field was only slightly back. Since 2019, that number has dropped to 0.54 points per game and a win percentage of 50.9%. From 2010 to 2018, home teams averaged a scoring margin of 2.33 points per game and won 57.1% of the time. There is a significant break after the 2018 season. However, we need to dig a little bit deeper and look at the evolution of the home-field advantage - particularly as it relates to our approach to the betting markets. Since 2010, home teams during the NFL regular season (excluding the last week) have been winning by an average margin of 1.9 points per game. 1 seed, the effects of travel, and a little thing called “ survivorship bias” What NFL bettors need to know about the value of a conference’s No.
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